Interest Rate Components: Inflation, Liquidity, and Risk
Interest Rate Components: Inflation, Liquidity, and Risk
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The Petrodollar Is The Root of All Evil
So here is the core element of what I believe, drives US foreign policy (Wars/Conflicts/Sanctions) and also domestic policy. I tried to trim my draft down so it's not a TLDR, but not leave out any critical information or citations/sources. This is pulled directly from this brief article: Petrodollar "KEY TAKEAWAYS
Petrodollars are dollars paid to oil-producing countries for oil.
The emergence of the petrodollar dates back to the early 1970s when the U.S. reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia to standardize the sale of oil based on the U.S. dollar.
Petrodollar recycling creates demand for U.S. assets when dollars received for oil sales are used to buy investments in the United States.
Recycling of petrodollars is beneficial to the greenback because it promotes non-inflationary growth.
A move away from petrodollars could potentially increase borrowing costs for governments, companies, and consumers if sources of money become scarce."
This list of facts should make clear just how dependent US currency is on the global oil economy. Which brings us to something called The Triffin Dilemma . "By "agreeing" to have its currency used as a reserve currency, a country pins its hands behind its back. In order to keep the global economy chugging along, it may have to inject large amounts of currency into circulation, driving upinflationat home. The more popular the reserve currency is relative to other currencies, the higher itsexchange rateand the less competitive domestic exporting industries become. This causes atrade deficitfor the currency-issuing country, but makes the world happy. If the reserve currency country instead decides to focus on domestic monetary policy by not issuing more currency then the world is unhappy." "Reserve Currency ParadoxBecoming a reserve currency presents countries with a paradox. They want the "interest-free" loan generated by selling currency to foreign governments, and the ability to raisecapitalquickly, because of high demand for reserve currency-denominated bonds. At the same time they want to be able to use capital andmonetary policyto ensure that domestic industries are competitive in the world market, and to make sure that the domestic economy is healthy and not running large trade deficits. Unfortunately, both of these ideas – cheap sources of capital and positivetrade balances– can't really happen at the same time." Obviously, the US and global economy is a complex system with many moving parts but I think, just this small amount of information begins to clarify the bigger picture. It seems as though most people have accepted the idea that we have engaged in bad faith wars in the name of stealing oil, which is true on some level, but we are not actually trying to seize the oil, we are trying to force the entire world to participate in OUR oil economy in a way that benefits us the most. Which leads me to the final part of this post. The Non-Alignment Movement (NAM) is a collection of approximately 120 nations that have joined together, starting back during the cold war, in an effort to remain independent and not be pressured in to choosing sides between the US and Russia. Many of these countries, such as Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and most recently, Venezuela and Syria, have either dropped the petrodollar or made efforts to trade in other currencies. If this list looks familiar, it's because we have invaded, occupied and/or attempted regime change backed by MSM reporting of human rights violations or threat of nuclear proliferation. Obviously, we have pretty solid evidence that most of these claims were completely false. One of the main focuses of NAM these days, has been to conduct trade and handle the oil on their land, any way they see fit and they have been mounting a pretty strong coalition in response to the insanely harsh sanctions that we have tried to levy. Article About NAM and US Sanctions . This is essentially economic terrorism and unfortunately, most people, including myself, are not quite able to grasp just how de-stabilizing these sanctions are but it is slowly becoming clear to the public that we have been carrying out this policy of global dominance for decades. The Trump WH and John Bolton just happen to be much more open about their motives: In January, White House National Security Advisor John Boltonissueda veiled threat on Twitter:My advice to bankers, brokers, traders, facilitators, and other businesses: don’t deal in gold, oil, or other Venezuelan commodities being stolen from the Venezuelan people by the Maduro mafia. We stand ready to continue to take action. On his Twitter account, Trumpinsisted, “We have only one real currency in the USA, and it is stronger than ever, both dependable and reliable. It is by far the most dominant currency anywhere in the World, and it will always stay that way. It is called the United States Dollar!” I realize that this may not be the most exciting topic, considering the kind of news we have been peppered with recently, but I think it is important for people to consider. It seems pretty clear that almost all of our military operations around the world have everything to do with giant oil companies, defense contractors and the petrodollar and have nothing to do with spreading democracy or freeing civilians from oppressive regimes. Our allegiance with Saudi Arabia makes a lot more sense and our insane obsession on Russia also starts to take focus. Russia is also a member of NAM and is basically the biggest country that has chosen to defy the US. And since we can't push them around like a weaker country, we rely on a constant fear-mongering campaign by our media outlets. Following the NAM summit, Venezuelan Economy Minister Tareck El Aissamiannouncedhis country’s establishment of a payment system to meet obligations to Russia that will be covered with rubles. The developments have sent the US establishment into a frenzy. Still working on part 2, but hope some people will find this informative....
Guide To Embedded Options In Bonds Investopedia. The price trading options expiration friday of a callable bond is the opposite of that of puttable bond. Since call option and put option are not mutually exclusivea bond may have both options embedded. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Bond Debenture Fixed income. Agency bond Corporate bond Senior debt Subordinated debt Distressed debt ... Inflation-linked bonds therefore allow you to create retirement cash flows that are indexed to inflation. (Technical note: For TIPS (but not all other markets), there is an added guarantee that you will get your money back if you buy it when first auctioned.Even if there is deflation over the lifetime of the bond, the principal payment will always be at least $100. With the issuing of inflation-linked bonds, CPI has also been used to calculate the principal increase for this “real” bond. Liquidity Risk Premium. The liquidity risk premium is a third consideration for interest rate components and can be described as the compensation that a lender receives for investing funds in something that is difficult to sell. Let’s say you invest in a five year ... Inflation-linked bonds (also known as index-linked bonds, or even linkers) are bonds that pay a guaranteed rate of return above inflation. Although the concept appears simple, the details of the implementation might be viewed as complex. This article explains how to understand the structure of these bonds, without being bogged down in technical details. Ray Dalio and Bridgewater have pioneered various investment strategies - and even advised the US government on the adoption of inflation-indexed bonds. Broadly speaking Ray Dalio is ‘macro investor’. Inflation-indexed bonds are another popular option for investors to profit from inflation. People holding cash may also not like inflation, as it erodes the value of their cash holdings. Both the principal and the coupon aka interest payments go up with inflation. Another excellent brief description of inflation indexed bonds, with reference to the US version called TIPS is in the Investopedia article titled Inflation-Protected Securities - The Missing Link. Inflation-adjusted Interest vs Real Yield
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